Beijing: China’s export growth in August slowed more than expected, dragged down by a steep fall in shipments to the United States, underscoring the lingering strain from ongoing US-China trade tensions.
Exports Miss Forecasts
Official data released Monday showed China’s exports rose 4.4% year-on-year, below Bloomberg’s forecast of 5.5% and weaker than July’s 7.2% growth. Exports to the US — China’s largest single-country trading partner — fell 11.8% from July and tumbled 33.1% compared with a year earlier.
In contrast, exports to the European Union climbed 10.4%, while shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations surged 22.5%, highlighting Beijing’s efforts to diversify trade.
Imports And Trade Surplus
Imports rose just 1.3%, below expectations of 3.4%. Total imports stood at $219.5 billion, contributing to a trade surplus of $321.8 billion for August. Despite the surplus, analysts noted that this marked China’s slowest export pace since early 2025.
Analysts: Tariff Impact & Diversion
Economists said the slowdown reflects fading “frontloading” — exporters rushing shipments before tariff hikes — as well as trade diversion caused by supply chain shifts.
- Zhiwei Zhang of Pinpoint Asset Management said the resilience of Chinese exports this year came from businesses seeking bigger market share abroad amid weak domestic demand.
- Yue Su of the Economist Intelligence Unit noted that supply chain diversification to avoid tariffs mirrors patterns seen during the first US-China trade war.
Tariff Truce, But Pressure Ahead
In August, Washington and Beijing extended their tariff truce until November 10, freezing US duties at 30% and Chinese levies at 10%. However, economists warn that the temporary relief is fading. Capital Economics said export pressure will persist as the boost from the truce wears off.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly pointed to America’s leverage. In August, he said the US holds “incredible cards” over Beijing but warned that playing them could “destroy China.” He also hinted at 200% tariffs on Chinese rare earths unless Beijing guarantees supply of critical magnets.
Trade Relationship Under Strain
Despite the truce, bilateral trade flows remain weak. In the first half of 2025, US imports of Chinese goods fell about 15%, while American exports to China dropped around 20% year-on-year, reflecting the ongoing damage from the tariff standoff.
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