Indian stock markets may start the week on a positive note, despite weak global cues. The GIFT Nifty index indicated a slightly higher open, suggesting investor interest in value buys after last week’s sell-off.

GIFT Nifty Signals Mild Rebound

At 7:30 a.m. on Monday, the GIFT Nifty traded around 24,671—up 0.3% or 70 points. This suggests a potential gap-up opening for benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex, even as global markets remain under pressure.

Last week, Indian equity markets mirrored global declines, with most sectors ending in the red. However, FMCG stocks showed resilience due to stable demand and limited exposure to global trade tensions.

Global Cues Remain Cautious

Markets worldwide are under pressure. Weak U.S. jobs data and rising inflation have sparked fears of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Wall Street saw broad-based losses after the Trump administration rolled out new tariff hikes.

Asian stocks continued to fall for the seventh straight day on Monday, tracking this global negativity.

Market Sentiment & Technical Setup

The India VIX, a gauge of market volatility, climbed 3.75% to close at 11.97, but remains below the critical 13 mark. This suggests traders are not expecting a sharp sell-off in the near term.

Technical indicators point to a cautious outlook:

• A break below 24,535–24,500 may lead to a further fall toward 24,300–24,250.
• Unless Nifty reclaims key resistance levels, any bounce may face selling pressure.
• The RSI (Relative Strength Index) has dropped below 40, signaling continued bearish momentum.

FPI Activity May Hold the Key

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) could influence market direction. If short positions are covered, it might trigger a brief rally. Their long-short ratio is near oversold levels, hinting at the possibility of a rebound.

According to Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities:

“The Nifty is still under bearish control. Support levels are weakening, and resistance zones are shifting downward. Buyer interest is fading, while call writers are aggressively building positions at higher levels.”

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