As investors prepare for Tuesday’s trade, global market signals present a mixed bag, with optimism in equities countered by ongoing volatility in commodities and currency markets. Indian indices are likely to open lower today, tracking muted signals from GIFT Nifty, which was hovering around 24,726 in early morning trade.
Indian Markets: Weak Start Expected
After a positive start to the week, Indian benchmark indices may open flat to negative. On Monday, the Sensex rose by 418 points to close at 81,018.72, while the Nifty added 157 points to finish at 24,722.75. Despite early volatility, markets gained on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rates following a weak U.S. jobs report.
Key Global Cues for Today:
1. GIFT Nifty: Mildly Lower
GIFT Nifty signals a soft opening for Indian markets, trading slightly lower at 24,726.
2. Asian Equities: Positive Open
Asian markets opened higher, supported by bargain buying and optimism around potential U.S. interest rate cuts. The rally in the U.S. appears to have lifted sentiment in the region.
3. U.S. Equities: Strong Rebound
Wall Street rebounded sharply on Monday, marking its best session since May 27:
- Dow Jones: +1.34% (44,173.64)
- S&P 500: +1.47% (6,329.94)
- Nasdaq: +1.95% (21,053.58)
4. U.S. Bond Yields: Slight Uptick
Yields on 10-year and 2-year Treasuries rose slightly to 4.19% and 3.68% respectively.
5. Dollar Index: Stable
The U.S. dollar traded flat as investors continued to weigh the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and the potential economic impact of recent U.S. tariff hikes.
6. Asian Currencies: Broadly Higher
Most Asian currencies were up, led by the Indonesian Rupiah, Thai Baht, and Philippine Peso. The Indonesian Rupiah remains the only major Asian currency still down year-to-date.
7. Crude Oil: Flat
Oil prices held steady after three consecutive sessions of decline. Supply concerns from OPEC+ output hikes were balanced by potential disruptions in Russian supply.
8. Gold: Slightly Up
Gold prices inched higher as hopes of a September Fed rate cut gained momentum among traders.
9. Fund Flows: FIIs Continue Selling, DIIs Keep Buying
- FIIs sold ₹2,566 crore worth of equities on August 4, marking their 11th straight session of net outflows.
- DIIs remained net buyers for the 21st consecutive session, purchasing equities worth ₹4,386 crore.
Takeaway: Markets today may start on a cautious note, with global equities offering some support but concerns around oil oversupply and U.S. policy moves adding to investor uncertainty. Traders will be watching interest rate signals and fund flow trends closely.
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