The global smartphone market is showing signs of life again, with shipments forecast to grow by 1% in 2025, according to a new report from IDC. While this growth may seem modest, it’s a positive turnaround from the firm’s earlier predictions, which were downgraded due to factors like tariffs, inflation, and sluggish consumer spending.
This revision comes thanks to stronger-than-expected demand for Apple’s iPhones, alongside a significant wave of replacement purchases from consumers worldwide. This momentum is expected to carry into 2026 and beyond, offering a more optimistic outlook for the smartphone industry amidst global economic uncertainty.
iOS Takes the Lead in Market Growth
IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker predicts that global smartphone shipments will reach 1.24 billion units in 2025, with Apple’s iOS devices driving much of the growth. iPhones are projected to see a 3.9% year-on-year increase, helping Apple lead the charge in a market that was once stagnating.
Despite inflation and low consumer confidence in some regions, people are still upgrading their phones, fueled by better deals, trade-in programs, and interest-free financing. IDC forecasts that the smartphone market will maintain a 1.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2024 and 2029, with the replacement cycle being a key driver.
Regional Performance: Winners and Losers
The performance of the smartphone market varies significantly across regions. IDC’s senior research director, Nabila Popal, noted that growth in regions like the US (3.6%), the Middle East and Africa (6.5%), and Asia Pacific excluding China (0.8%) will offset a decline in China, which is expected to shrink by 1% in 2025. This marks a significant downgrade from IDC’s earlier forecast of a 3% gain in China, with weaker government subsidies and economic challenges contributing to the slowdown.
The Shift from Volume to Value
An interesting trend emerging in the market is a shift from a focus on volume to value creation. Manufacturers are now prioritizing sleek designs, advanced camera features, foldable formats, and most importantly, integrating generative AI directly into devices.
Although smartphone shipments are only expected to grow by 1% in 2025, the overall market value is expected to increase more significantly, with average selling prices rising by 5% and overall revenue climbing by 6%. Aggressive marketing campaigns, financing options, and the appeal of premium features are helping consumers justify spending more on their devices.
Generative AI Becomes the Focus
Generative AI is set to be a central theme for smartphone makers aiming to differentiate their products. IDC’s Anthony Scarsella predicts that global shipments of AI-powered smartphones will surpass 370 million units in 2025, representing about 30% of the market. By 2029, AI smartphones are expected to make up over 70% of global shipments as the technology becomes more accessible, moving beyond flagship models into mid-range phones.
Foldables: Growing but Niche
Foldable smartphones continue to capture attention, with recent releases from companies like Samsung, Google, Motorola, Honor, and Huawei showing significant progress in both hardware and software. While foldables still face issues with durability and affordability, consumer demand is expected to grow as more models with stronger screens and lower price tags enter the market.
IDC forecasts a 6% year-on-year growth in the foldable market in 2025, with continued expansion in the coming years. However, foldables will remain a niche category, accounting for under 3% of global smartphone shipments by 2029.
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