The global smartphone market is expected to grow by 1% in 2025, reaching 1.24 billion units, according to IDC’s latest forecast. This is a slight improvement from the previous 0.6% projection, driven by strong demand for Apple’s iOS devices and healthy replacement demand, despite the ongoing macroeconomic challenges.
The revised forecast comes after an earlier downgrade in May, which had lowered growth expectations to 0.6% due to factors such as tariffs, inflation, and weak consumer spending. However, IDC now believes the market will show resilience in 2025, with the positive momentum expected to carry into 2026. The total market outlook has been slightly boosted by US tariff exemptions, which have helped protect smartphone prices from additional costs.
Key Market Drivers:
- iOS Growth:
Apple’s iOS ecosystem is one of the major contributors to the forecasted growth, with a 3.9% increase in iOS shipments. This has positively impacted overall smartphone growth, particularly in markets like the US, the Middle East, and Africa. - Generative AI Phones:
IDC forecasts that smartphones with generative AI capabilities will see strong demand, with over 370 million units expected to ship in 2025. These devices, making up about 30% of the market, are anticipated to become a standard feature across various price segments by 2029, with market share growing to over 70%. - Foldable Smartphones:
The foldable smartphone market is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year in 2025, with significant improvements in both hardware and software. This growth is attributed to better durability, affordability, and increased consumer interest. Despite the growth, foldables are predicted to remain a niche category, accounting for less than 3% of total global smartphone shipments by 2029.
Regional Growth and Trends:
IDC’s report also points to regional variations in smartphone growth. While the US and the Middle East & Africa are projected to see growth rates of 3.6% and 6.5% respectively in 2025, China is expected to experience a 1% decline, as government subsidies phase out and economic headwinds continue. Asia Pacific (excluding China) is expected to grow at 0.8%.
Value Over Volume:
Instead of chasing high-volume sales, manufacturers are focusing on value creation by investing in premium features such as advanced camera systems, slimmer designs, and generative AI capabilities. This shift toward premium devices is further supported by marketing campaigns and financing options, making high-end smartphones more accessible.
Looking Ahead:
IDC predicts that the smartphone market will continue to grow, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5% from 2024 to 2029. Despite economic uncertainties, vendors are focusing on adding value through new technologies to maintain growth and profitability.
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